The probability that Iran will announce withdrawal from memorandum of understanding (MOU) negotiations by July 31 dropped 17.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours on Polymarket, sliding from 33.5% to 16.5% according to the Polymarket Breaking feed dated July 15, 2026.
Despite this sharp decline in the YES contract price, whale activity diverged from the price move. Large traders bought $283K worth of YES contracts while selling $103K, resulting in a net whale inflow of $180K into YES positions. This contrasts with the overall market sentiment implied by the price drop, indicating a disconnect between whale flow and the tape.
The total 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket for this market was $267K, with 219 unique whales participating. Since inception, the market has reached a lifetime volume of $2.02M and involved 1,725 unique traders.
The divergence between whale buying and the falling YES price suggests that while the broader market has sharply repriced the odds lower, whales are increasing their exposure to the outcome.
| Market | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643400 |
| 24h price change | +17.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 16.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 33.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 16.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $180K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $283K / $103K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 219 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $267K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,725 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.