Breaking
Iran military action odds drop 26pp to 41% as whale flow diverges
Despite a sharp 26 percentage point decline in YES price, whale activity did not support the move on Polymarket.
Jul 16
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 115 stories.
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds drop 25pp as whale flow contradicts price move
YES contract price for Iran military action on July 15 fell sharply despite $12K whale buying, signaling market uncertainty.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 37.5 points despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged sharply from price, as Polymarket's 'Iran military action' contract fell from 59.5% to 22.0% in 24 hours.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran MOU Withdrawal Odds Drop 19.5pp as Whale Flow Diverges
YES price for Iran MOU withdrawal by August 15 fell sharply despite whale buying, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 44.5 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract dropped from 56.0% to 11.5% despite whale activity opposing the price move.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran MOU Withdrawal Odds Drop 20.5 Points Despite $25K Whale Bets on YES
Whale activity diverged sharply from price action as Polymarket’s market on Iran’s MOU withdrawal fell from 32.0% to 11.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran military action odds drop 40pp despite whale buying on Polymarket
YES price for Iran Gulf State military action falls from 78.5% to 38.5% as whale flow diverges from market direction
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? YES price drops 43pp to 34.5% amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s YES contract for Iranian military action loses nearly half its implied probability while whale bets move against the price trend.
Jul 16
Breaking
‘Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?’ YES price drops 32.5 pp in 24h
Significant price decline contrasts with whale buying, signaling mixed market signals on Iran conflict odds.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? YES odds plunge 73pp to 15%
The sharp decline in YES price contrasts with whale activity, signaling a split in market conviction.
Jul 16