Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 115 stories.
Polymarket’s odds for Iranian military action fell sharply despite whales not backing the move, signaling market uncertainty.
Whale activity tracked the sharp rise in odds as market confidence in a US announcement grows.
Polymarket’s “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price despite $3K whale net buying, signaling conflicting signals between price and large traders.
Polymarket's “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?” YES price fell sharply despite whales buying $14K net into YES contracts.
The YES contract on US halting Iran offensive operations dropped sharply from 36.5% to 9.5%, while whale activity diverged by reducing exposure.
Whale activity moved against the sharp 22pp drop in the US halting Iran offensive operations market, signaling differing views on the outlook.
YES contract for Iran military action on July 15 fell from 58.0% to 16.0% despite $7K whale net buys, signaling conflicting signals between price and whale activity.
Polymarket's 'Iran military action' market saw YES odds fall from 63.0% to 34.0%, with whale activity diverging by adding $5K into YES amid a 24-hour price decline.
YES contract for Iran Gulf State military action dropped from 82.5% to 40.5% despite $8K whale net buying, signaling market uncertainty.
Whales bought $8K in YES contracts even as market price fell sharply from 84% to 44%.
