The probability that Iran will announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31 dropped 22.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, falling from 36.5% to 14.5% on Polymarket. This significant price decline contrasts with whale trading activity, which saw a net $159K flowing into YES contracts amid $242K in whale buy volume versus $83K in sell volume. The divergence between whale flow and price movement is notable, as the 185 unique whales active in the past day accumulated YES positions even as the market’s implied odds sharply decreased.
Overall Polymarket volume for this question reached $218K in the last 24 hours, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $2.02M with participation from 1,734 unique traders. The discrepancy between whale buying and falling prices suggests conflicting signals: retail and broader market sentiment is driving the YES price down, while large players are increasing exposure to a YES outcome.
This dynamic underlines a complex market narrative where whales appear to position against the prevailing sentiment reflected in the price. The 22.0pp drop in YES odds combined with $159K net whale buying indicates a contested view on Iran’s negotiation stance, highlighting active interest and uncertainty about the outcome ahead of the July 31 deadline.
| Market | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643400 |
| 24h price change | +22.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 14.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 36.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 14.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $159K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $242K / $83K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 185 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $218K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,734 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.