Breaking
US blockade on Iran odds jump 36.5pp to 56% as whales back YES with $168K net flow
Polymarket’s US blockade on Iran market saw a sharp odds shift aligned with whale buying, signaling strong conviction in a July 31 announcement.
Jul 12
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? YES odds jump 38.5 percentage points
Polymarket's YES contract for Iranian military action nearly quintupled in probability as whale activity confirmed the sharp move.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 27.5 points as whales back YES with $25K net flow
Polymarket's price for a US blockade on Iran by August 31 rose sharply, driven by whale buying that moved in step with the price surge.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds Jump 15.8pp to 40% on Strait of Hormuz Transit Market in 24h
Whale activity tracked the sharp rise in YES price, signaling aligned conviction on July 31 transit estimates.
Jul 12
Breaking
US blockade on Iran odds jump 24pp to 55.5% as whales boost YES bets
Polymarket's latest pricing shows a sharp shift in expectations, backed by $24K net whale inflows into YES contracts.
Jul 12
Breaking
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? YES odds jump 25.5pp to 59% on Polymarket
Whales supported the surge with $18K net buys, pushing the market well above on-chain mid-price
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia capture Kostyantynivka odds jump 26pp to 59.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price shifts moved in tandem as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of capture by July 31.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” YES price jumps 79.8 pp to 83.2% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour repricing with $5K net flow into YES contracts amid $11K total volume.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action market jumps 66.5pp to 76% as whales back the move
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?” contract surged from 9.5% to 76%, with whale flow supporting the sharp repricing.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Shipping Attack Odds Surge 18.1pp to 21.8% on Polymarket
Whale activity tracked the sharp rise in probability for Iran targeting shipping on July 11, pushing the market higher alongside increased volume.
Jul 12