The probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by August 31 surged by 27.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 31.5% to 59.0%. This significant repricing coincided with substantial whale activity, as 100 unique large traders contributed $45K in buy volume and $20K in sell volume, resulting in a net inflow of $25K into YES contracts.
The 24-hour trading volume for this market reached $53K, representing a sizable portion of the market’s lifetime volume of $123K and involving 234 unique traders overall. Notably, the whales’ buying flow aligned with the rising YES price, reinforcing the market’s upward momentum.
However, there is a notable divergence between the Polymarket Breaking feed price and the Polydata on-chain mid-price; while the Breaking feed shows YES at 59.0%, the on-chain mid-price stands at 35.5%. This gap suggests some lag or variation in pricing sources but does not diminish the clear trend of increased market conviction.
The combined shift in price and whale flow highlights growing confidence among large traders in the likelihood of a US blockade announcement by the specified date. The alignment between whale buying and price movement indicates coordinated sentiment rather than a purely retail-driven rally, signaling a meaningful change in market expectations for this geopolitical event.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2821347 |
| 24h price change | +27.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 59.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 31.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 35.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $25K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $45K / $20K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 100 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $53K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 234 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.