The probability that Iran successfully targeted shipping on July 11 jumped 18.1 percentage points over the past 24 hours to 21.8% on Polymarket. This marks a notable repricing from an estimated 3.6% just a day earlier, signaling a significant shift in market sentiment.
Whale flow aligned with this price movement, confirming the tape’s direction as participants increased exposure to the YES contract. The combined effect of price and whale trading activity underlines a concerted reassessment of the event’s likelihood rather than a divergence between market prices and large trader behavior.
Trading volume in the last 24 hours reached $9K, reflecting heightened engagement amid this rapid odds adjustment. The market’s swift response and corroborating whale flow suggest that participants are factoring in new information or developments that have materially altered the perceived chances of Iran’s successful targeting on the specified date.
This confluence of price surge, whale participation, and volume growth points to a market that is dynamically recalibrating its view on the event’s outcome, emphasizing the importance of tracking both price moves and flow to understand evolving probabilities on Polymarket.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835627 |
| 24h price change | +18.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 21.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 3.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.