Polymarket’s market on whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 saw its YES contract climb sharply by 25.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 33.5% to 59.0%.
This sizable move was confirmed by whale activity, with 77 unique whale traders contributing a net $18K inflow into YES positions. Whale buy volume reached $35K, outweighing $17K in sell volume. The total Polymarket volume for the market over the same period was $30K, indicating that whales accounted for a significant share of recent trading.
Notably, the Polymarket YES price at 59.0% contrasts with Polydata’s on-chain mid-price of 43.5%, signaling a divergence between the market’s current pricing and broader on-chain averages. The lifetime volume on this market stands at $172K with 541 unique traders participating, highlighting sustained interest.
The alignment of whale flows with the rising YES price suggests coordinated conviction behind the odds shift, rather than a price move opposed by large traders. The combined price and flow data indicate strong recent momentum in the market’s expectation that Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by the specified date.
| Market | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2608935 |
| 24h price change | +25.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 59.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 33.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 43.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $18K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $35K / $17K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 77 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $30K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 541 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.