Breaking
“Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?” YES price jumps 20 pp to 51.5%
Whales backed the sharp 24-hour price rise with $27K net inflow into YES contracts, signaling strong conviction.
Jul 12
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Surge 76 Points to 83.5% on Polymarket
Whale trades and price moves aligned as markets sharply repriced the likelihood of Iranian military action on July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 70pp to 77.5% with whale support
Polymarket’s ‘Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?’ contract jumps sharply as whale activity aligns with price move.
Jul 12
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 17pp despite $39K whale buying
Whales increased YES exposure by $39K while market-implied probability for a US-Iran meeting by July 31, 2026 fell sharply.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds surge 34.5 pp to 53% as whales back YES with $171K net flow
The market for a US blockade on Iran by July 31 saw a sharp repricing alongside aligned whale buying, signaling a major shift in sentiment.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 76.5 Percentage Points to 83% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with a sharp surge in the probability of Iranian military action against a Gulf State on July 12, lifting the market from 6.5% to 83%.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Surges 67.5 Points as Whale Activity Supports Rally
The probability of Iran launching military action against a Gulf State on July 12 soared to 74.5% amid aligned whale buying and rising volume.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?” YES price jumps 22.5 pp to 55.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity of $20K net buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour price rise, pushing odds well above on-chain mid estimates.
Jul 12
Breaking
‘Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?’ YES price jumps 36.0 pp to 55.5%
Whales supported the surge with $166K net inflow into YES, pushing the Polymarket price well above on-chain midpoints.
Jul 12
Breaking
Israel military action odds jump 17.5 points to 63% on Polymarket
Whale trades and price moves aligned as market repriced a military action by August 31 scenario.
Jul 12