Breaking
US halt on Iran offensive by July 24? YES price jumps 18 pp to 26%
Whale activity tracked with the price surge as market optimism on a US halt in Iran's offensive operations rises sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 20
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
US halt on Iran offensive by July 24? YES price jumps 21pp to 30% on aligned whale flow
Polymarket’s “US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?” market saw a sharp 21pp rise in YES price, driven by whale activity matching the price move.
Jul 20
Breaking
US halt in Iran offensive by July 21? YES price jumps 19.5 points on Polymarket
Whale activity tracked the sharp rise in odds as market confidence in a US announcement grows.
Jul 20
Breaking
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? YES price drops 15.5 pp amid whale sell-off
Whale activity diverged from price movement as YES odds on Iran withdrawal fell from 29.0% to 13.5% despite $21K net whale inflow.
Jul 20
Breaking
Oleksandr Syrskyi exit odds jump 23pp to 63% on aligned whale buying
Whale flow supported a sharp price rise in the Polymarket contract on Syrskyi’s Ukraine Commander-in-Chief status by mid-2026.
Jul 20
Breaking
Odds US Will Withdraw from MOU Talks by August 31 Drop 22pp to 27%
Price plunge contrasts with whale buying, signaling mixed conviction on US withdrawal timing.
Jul 20
Breaking
Israel-Iran ceasefire odds jump 29pp to 61.5% on Polymarket amid aligned whale bets
Polymarket’s “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?” market surged as whale activity reinforced a sharp rise in YES contract price.
Jul 20
Breaking
US halt on Iran offensive odds drop 15.5 points despite whale buying
Polymarket's 'US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?' market falls from 80% to 64.5% even as whales increase YES bets, signaling a split between retail and large traders.
Jul 19
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 47.5 points as whale flow diverges
Whales bought $11K in YES contracts even as the market price fell sharply from 51.5% to 4.0%.
Jul 19
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 52.5pp to 4.5% amid whale-buying divergence
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?” market saw a sharp 52.5 percentage point drop in YES price despite $9K whale net inflow into YES contracts, highlighting a rare divergence between price moves and whale activity.
Jul 19