Breaking
Russia Capture of Kostyantynivka Jumps 28.5pp to 55% on Polymarket
Whales supported a sharp shift in odds, doubling the YES price with $28K net inflow amid $51K 24-hour volume.
Jul 12
#%swhales
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 870 stories.
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 Extension YES Price Surges 71.5pp to 100%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp market repricing on Polymarket, confirming near-certainty of an extension by July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 17.5pp despite $48K whale buying
Whale purchases of $48K in ‘YES’ contracts contrast with a sharp 17.5 percentage point decline in Polymarket price.
Jul 12
Breaking
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? YES jumps 23.3 pp to 88.6%
Whale buying aligned with a sharp rise in YES price, pushing odds from 65.3% to 88.6% in 24 hours
Jul 12
Breaking
US blockade on Iran odds jump 20pp to 47% as whales back the move
Whales aligned with a sharp 20 percentage point rise in the chance of a US blockade on Iran by August 31, driving a surge in Polymarket activity.
Jul 12
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension YES price jumps 80pp to 99.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price action aligned as market sharply repriced likelihood of Claude Fable 5 paid-plan extension by July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 24pp to 38.5% with $191K whale inflow
Whales and market price moved together as the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31 surged sharply.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action on July 12? YES jumps 83.5 pp to 90.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour repricing from 7.0% to 90.5%, signaling strong market conviction.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price surges 15.5 points to 92.5% on United Left primary cancellation market
Whales aligned with the price rally, adding a net $4K into YES as Polymarket sharply reprices the 2026 French presidential primary question.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 75.5 pp to 82% as whales back the move
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?” market jumps sharply with whale flows confirming the shift.
Jul 12