The probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 surged 24.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 14.5% to 38.5% on Polymarket’s breaking feed. This significant repricing coincided with strong whale activity, as 324 unique whales contributed a net $191K inflow into YES contracts, supported by a $372K buy volume that outpaced $181K in sell volume.
The 24-hour total market volume reached $338K amid this surge, part of a lifetime market volume of $1.03M with 1,026 unique traders participating overall. Notably, the Polymarket breaking YES price of 38.5% currently diverges from Polydata’s on-chain mid-price estimate of 22.5%, indicating some variation between the live market and on-chain data snapshots.
Whale flow aligned with the price move, confirming growing conviction among large traders about the likelihood of a US blockade announcement by the end of July. The combined sharp rise in odds and substantial whale buying suggest a rapid reassessment of geopolitical risk in this market. This alignment signals strong momentum behind the YES side, reflecting a significant shift in trader sentiment and capital deployment within a short period.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +24.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 38.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 14.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $191K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $372K / $181K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 324 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $338K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,026 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.