The Polymarket question “Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?” saw its YES contract price surge by 80.0 percentage points within 24 hours, rising from an estimated 19.5% to 99.5%. This dramatic repricing reflects a rapid market consensus shift on the likelihood of the extension.
Whale trading activity moved in concert with this price change, confirming the directional momentum rather than opposing it. The alignment of large-scale bets and price action suggests that substantial capital supported the sharp increase in odds rather than contradicting it.
Trading volume on this market over the past 24 hours totaled $36K, indicating meaningful liquidity and participation during the price adjustment. The near certainty implied by the 99.5% YES price signals a strong market conviction that Anthropic will extend access to the Claude Fable 5 paid-plan by the July 12 deadline.
This combination of price action and whale flow alignment indicates that participants have rapidly incorporated new information or sentiment about the extension, pushing the market to near unanimity on this outcome’s probability.
| Market | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839715 |
| 24h price change | +80.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 99.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 19.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $36K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.