The market on whether the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election will be canceled jumped 15.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours to 92.5% YES, up from an estimated 77.0% a day ago. This sizable move reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment toward the cancellation outcome.
Supporting the price rally, whale activity showed net inflows of $4K into YES positions during the same period, with $7K in whale buy volume against $3K in sell volume across 13 unique whale traders. The alignment of whale flow with the price move indicates that large traders are reinforcing the market’s growing confidence in the cancellation scenario.
Despite the Polymarket YES price at 92.5%, the Polydata on-chain mid-price overview remains significantly lower at 48.0%, highlighting a divergence between the on-chain valuation and Polymarket’s live market pricing. The 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract was $5K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $71K with 266 unique traders participating overall.
This combination of a sharp price increase and whale buying suggests that market participants are rapidly repricing the risk of the United Left primary being canceled, with significant capital backing the higher probability. The price and flow data together imply a strong consensus emerging around this outcome within the Polymarket ecosystem.
| Market | Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2133718 |
| 24h price change | +15.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 92.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 77.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 48.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $7K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 13 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 266 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.