Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds jump 25.9 pp to 58.9% with whale buying
Whales pushed $4K into YES contracts as market odds on Iran targeting shipping on July 13 rose sharply.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 870 stories.
Breaking
Mitch McConnell Senate Exit Odds Drop 20pp Despite $20K Whale Buy
Whales poured $20K into YES contracts even as market odds tumbled from 49.5% to 29.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds fall 18.2 points despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from price as Polymarket’s “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?” contract dropped sharply
Jul 12
Breaking
McConnell Senate Exit Odds Drop 17pp Despite $15K Whale Bet on YES
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 17.0 pp decline in YES price, signaling mixed conviction in McConnell stepping down early.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds McConnell Will Step Down Before Term End Drop 20pp Amid Whale Selling
Whales sold $16K against a 20pp decline in McConnell stepping down odds, signaling skeptical big-money flow.
Jul 12
Breaking
‘Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding?’ YES jumps 30.5 pp to 89%
Whale activity aligned with the sharp price rise, contributing $1K net flow into YES in a $5K volume market.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price falls 19 pp to 36% on Strait of Hormuz transit market as whale flow diverges
Polymarket's '40 ships transit Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026' contract dropped sharply despite whale activity opposing the move.
Jul 12
Breaking
US blockade on Iran odds jump 17.5 points on Polymarket with $25K whale inflow
Polymarket's contract on a US blockade of Iran by year-end rises from 44.0% to 61.5% amid aligned whale buying.
Jul 12
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 YES price jumps 16pp to 95.5% with whale buying
Whale activity and a sharp price rise pushed Polymarket odds for the July 31 launch to near certainty, despite a lower on-chain mid-price.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia Capture of Kostyantynivka Odds Jump 25.5 Points to 52% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp price rise with $28K net buys, pushing the market over the 50% threshold.
Jul 12