Breaking
Iran Hormuz attack odds plunge 16.1pp to 1.5% despite whale buying
Whale activity diverged from sharply falling prices in the market for Iran not attacking ships by Sunday, signaling conflicting signals.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 870 stories.
Breaking
Russia Capture of Kostyantynivka Contract Jumps 24.5 Points to 56% on Polymarket
Whales added $27K to YES positions as market odds on Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by July 31 rose sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade market jumps 22pp as whales add $27K to YES
Polymarket’s US blockade question shifts sharply higher with whale activity reinforcing the move amid a volume spike.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by July 31? YES price jumps 28pp to 60.5%
Whales supported the surge with $26K net buys amid $47K total 24h volume, pushing odds sharply higher.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka odds jump 31pp to 63.5% on Polymarket
Whales added $26K into YES as the contract nearly doubled in price within 24 hours, signaling a sharp shift in market sentiment.
Jul 12
Breaking
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? YES price drops 16pp despite $40K whale inflow
Whales bought $40K into YES as Polymarket’s Breaking price plunged from 58.5% to 42.5%, signaling a sharp market reassessment.
Jul 12
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Drop 17.5 Points in 24 Hours
Despite a sharp fall in the YES price, whale activity diverged by not supporting the move on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds surge 92pp to 94.5% on Polymarket
Whales contributed $11K net buying as the market price jumped from 2.5% to 94.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
‘Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding?’ YES price jumps 16.7 pp to 87.5%
Whales increased exposure with $2K net buys, reinforcing a sharp market repricing over 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 67.5pp to 75% on July 12
Whale activity and market prices rose together sharply, reflecting a major shift in expectations.
Jul 12