The Polymarket contract “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?” saw its YES price fall 18.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours, dropping from 23.8% to 5.6% as of July 13.
This sharp decline contrasts with whale activity, which diverged from the price move. Despite the market repricing lower the likelihood of a successful Iranian attack on shipping, large traders increased their net positions in YES contracts, signaling a disconnect between price action and whale flow.
The $11K traded in the past day reflects moderate volume, but the divergence between whale flow and the declining price suggests differing interpretations among market participants. While the broader market sharply reduced the implied probability of the event, whales appear to be accumulating exposure to a higher-risk outcome.
This tension between price and whale behavior highlights uncertainty in the contract’s outlook. The combined signals point to a market reassessing the event’s probability with conflicting signals from retail and large traders.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835627 |
| 24h price change | +18.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 5.6% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 23.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.