The probability that Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13 surged by 25.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 32.9% to 58.9% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing was reinforced by whale activity, which aligned with the price movement as large traders net bought $4K into YES contracts amid $10K in whale buy volume against $5K in sells.
Despite a relatively modest overall 24-hour volume of $8K, whale engagement was significant given the lifetime market volume of $16K and 113 unique traders. The 45 unique whales active in the past day helped drive the odds higher, confirming the market’s reassessment of the event’s likelihood.
The synchronized price increase and whale buying suggest growing conviction among top traders that Iran will target shipping on the specified date. This combined price and flow pattern indicates a meaningful shift in market sentiment rather than a speculative spike disconnected from whale behavior.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835636 |
| 24h price change | +25.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 58.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 32.9% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 45 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 113 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.