The probability that Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 surged 25.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 26.5% to 52.0%. This move represents a significant repricing of the market’s outlook on the conflict event.
Whale activity aligned with this price shift, with a net flow of $28K into YES contracts out of a total whale buy volume of $52K and sell volume of $24K. A total of 104 unique whale traders contributed to this flow, reinforcing the upward momentum in the contract’s odds.
The overall 24-hour volume on the market also matched the whale buy volume at $52K, indicating that whale transactions drove a substantial portion of the day’s trading. Since inception, the market has seen $205K in lifetime volume with 591 unique traders participating.
It is notable that the Polymarket YES price at 52.0% currently differs from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 43.5%, suggesting some divergence between the platform’s live price and the on-chain aggregated data.
The combined price increase and whale buying pressure signal growing conviction among large traders that the event is more likely to occur than previously assessed. This repricing marks a pivotal shift in market sentiment toward the probability of Kostyantynivka falling to Russian forces by the end of July.
| Market | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2608935 |
| 24h price change | +25.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 52.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 26.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 43.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $28K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $52K / $24K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 104 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $52K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 591 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.