Polymarket’s prediction that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by December 31 saw a sharp 17.5 percentage point increase in its YES contract price over the past 24 hours, climbing from 44.0% to 61.5%. This significant repricing coincided with whale activity that aligned with the price move, as $25K net flowed into YES contracts, supported by $41K in whale buy volume against $15K in sells. The market’s 24-hour volume stood at $40K, reflecting active trading around the event.
Over 100 unique whales participated in the last day, contributing to the market’s total lifetime volume of $400K and a broad base of 613 unique traders overall. Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price at 61.5% diverges markedly from the Polydata on-chain mid-price, which remains at 25.5%, highlighting a difference between the prediction market’s current consensus and the underlying on-chain data.
This combined surge in price and whale buying suggests growing conviction among larger traders about the likelihood of a US blockade announcement by year-end. The alignment of whale flow and price movement signals that the market’s repricing is supported by substantial capital shifts, reinforcing the upward revision in odds for this geopolitical event.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643406 |
| 24h price change | +17.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 61.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 44.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $25K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $41K / $15K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 105 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $40K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 613 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.