The market “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” saw its YES contract surge 25.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 22.5% to 47.5% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed as of July 12, 2026.
This sharp repricing was accompanied by significant whale activity, with a net $141K flowing into YES positions. Whale buy volume reached $272K, more than double their sell volume of $130K, across 266 unique whale traders. This whale flow aligned closely with the price move, confirming the tape’s direction.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume on this market registered $257K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $826K and involving 859 unique traders overall. Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 47.5% contrasts with the Polydata on-chain mid price of 25.5%, indicating some divergence in pricing data sources.
The combination of a strong 25.0pp price lift and robust whale buying interest signals a meaningful shift in market consensus toward the likelihood of a US blockade announcement on Iran by the end of July. The alignment of whale flow with the price move underscores conviction behind the repricing rather than isolated speculative spikes.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +25.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 47.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 22.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $141K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $272K / $130K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 266 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $257K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 859 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.