Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 28 pp to 49.5% as whales back YES with $158K flow
Whale buying and price moves aligned sharply in the last 24 hours on Polymarket's Iran blockade market.
Jul 12
#%swhale-flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 303 stories.
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 31.5 pp in 24h
Price and whale flow diverged sharply as market probability fell from 71.0% to 39.5% despite no whale buying support.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 66 points to 80.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price shifts moved in tandem as bets surged on imminent Iranian military action against a Gulf State.
Jul 12
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Drop 18.9 Points Despite Whale Flow
Polymarket’s market on a July 15 launch saw YES contract price plunge from 19.4% to 0.50% while whale activity diverged, signaling skepticism among major bettors.
Jul 12
Breaking
Yes price on Hormuz ship transit market plunges 45.5 pp amid diverging whale flow
Polymarket’s “Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?” market saw a sharp 24.5% price drop despite whale activity moving against it.
Jul 12
Breaking
Miami Home Value Market Jumps 26.5 Points as Whales Back YES with $4K Net Flow
Polymarket’s Miami home value contract surged from 36.5% to 63.0% YES price, driven by aligned whale buying of $7K volume.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds drop 16.1pp despite whale buying
Polymarket prices for Iran military action on July 11 fell sharply while whale flow moved opposite, signaling trader skepticism.
Jul 11
Breaking
Claude Fable 5 Extension Odds Drop 15pp Despite Whale Buying
Whale activity diverged from price action as the market sharply lowered the chance of Anthropic extending Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access by July 12.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Kash Patel out by December 31?” YES contract jumps 19.5 points to 56%
Whales bought $14K into the YES side, aligning with a sharp 24-hour price surge on Polymarket.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Jump 15.2 Points to 29.5% on Polymarket
Whale bets and price gains moved in tandem as market reassesses likelihood of Gulf conflict on July 9.
Jul 11