Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 25.7 points to 39.6% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price gains aligned as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of Iran striking a Gulf State on July 9.
Jul 11
#%swhale-flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 303 stories.
Breaking
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again? YES price drops 21.5 pp in 24h
Whale activity diverges from price move as Polymarket cuts extension odds sharply
Jul 11
Breaking
Russia Entry into Shevchenko Market Surges 20.6pp to 98.7% on Polymarket
Whale activity of $20K aligns with sharp price rise, signaling strong market conviction on the event.
Jul 11
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds drop 21pp despite whale buying
YES contract for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026 fell from 44.0% to 23.0% while whale flow diverged, signaling mixed market signals.
Jul 11
Breaking
Odds for xAI’s next Grok model debuting above 1460 score plunge 68.3pp in 24h
Whale activity diverged from the steep drop in YES price, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Trump signs housing bill by end of July?” YES price plunges 30.1 pp to 2.4% on Polymarket
Price and whale flow diverged sharply as odds collapsed despite on-chain data signaling higher probability.
Jul 10
Breaking
Ethereum $1,700 July Dip Odds Drop 18.5 Points as Whale Flow Diverges
Polymarket’s Ethereum dip market sees a sharp 18.5pp decline in YES price despite whale activity moving against the trend.
Jul 10
Breaking
“Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?” YES price drops 15pp to 77.5% amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s contract on Moscow air traffic suspension saw a sharp 15pp decline in YES price despite opposing whale trading activity.
Jul 10
Breaking
Polymarket YES Price for xAI Grok Model Debut Plunges 55.5pp Amid Divergent Whale Flow
The market price for Grok scoring at least 1460 by end-2026 collapsed despite whale buying, signaling a sharp shift in retail sentiment.
Jul 10
Breaking
Mitch McConnell Senate exit odds drop 20.5pp despite $18K whale buy flow
YES price for McConnell stepping down fell sharply from 68.5% to 48.0% while whales increased exposure by $18K, diverging from price action.
Jul 10