The market for “Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” experienced a dramatic shift in sentiment over the past 24 hours, with the YES contract price plunging 31.5 percentage points from approximately 71.0% to 39.5% as of July 12, 2026.
This sharp decline in implied probability was accompanied by $14K in trading volume but notably lacked corresponding whale buying activity. Whale flow diverged from the price move, indicating large investors did not support the downward revaluation of the YES outcome during this period.
The divergence between whale behavior and retail price action suggests a disconnect in confidence levels. While the market rapidly discounted the likelihood of 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day by the specified date, whales remained hesitant to commit capital to this lower valuation.
The combined price drop and absence of whale support signal increased uncertainty or skepticism about the event occurring at the previously higher odds.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +31.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 39.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 71.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.