Breaking
Odds Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 jump 35pp to 61.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with sharp price rise as market recalibrated odds on Russian advance
Jul 12
#%swhale-flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 303 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action odds spike 87 points to 93.5% on Polymarket
Whale trading backed the rapid jump in probability for Iran’s military action against a Gulf State on July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds on Strait of Hormuz Transits July 31 Jump 23.2pp to 44.1%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp price rise in the market for average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 72pp to 79.5% on July 12 Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with price jump as market rapidly reprices likelihood of conflict
Jul 12
Breaking
“Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026?” YES price jumps 59.5pp to 100% on Polymarket
Whales supported the surge with a $22K net inflow into YES contracts amid $42K total 24-hour volume.
Jul 12
Breaking
Hanwha Life Esports YES contract jumps 74.5 points to 100% on Polymarket
A $37K whale net inflow accompanied the sharp 24-hour price gain, aligning big-money bets with the market move.
Jul 12
Breaking
LCK Team’s MSI 2026 Win Odds Surge 43.5 Points on Polymarket with Whale Support
The YES contract for a South Korean team winning MSI 2026 jumped from 26.0% to 69.5% as whales pushed $15K into the position.
Jul 12
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 17pp despite $39K whale buying
Whales increased YES exposure by $39K while market-implied probability for a US-Iran meeting by July 31, 2026 fell sharply.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds surge 34.5 pp to 53% as whales back YES with $171K net flow
The market for a US blockade on Iran by July 31 saw a sharp repricing alongside aligned whale buying, signaling a major shift in sentiment.
Jul 12
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Drop 23.8 Points Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Polymarket’s “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?” contract sees a sharp 24-hour YES price decline while whale activity moves against the price trend.
Jul 12