The probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 surged by 28.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, climbing from an estimated 21.5% to 49.5% on Polymarket Breaking.
This sharp repricing came with strong whale participation, as 285 unique whales collectively bought $306K and sold $147K in YES contracts, resulting in a net $158K inflow into YES positions. The 24-hour trading volume on the market was $286K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $883K with 901 unique traders engaged overall.
Whale flow aligned closely with the price move, signaling coordinated conviction rather than conflicting signals. Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 49.5% contrasts with the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 25.5%, indicating a significant divergence between the Breaking feed and the broader on-chain overview.
The combination of a near doubling in implied probability alongside strong whale net buying suggests a rapid shift in market sentiment on the likelihood of a US blockade announcement. This move reflects increased trader confidence or new information driving demand for YES contracts in this geopolitical event market.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +28.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 49.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 21.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $158K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $306K / $147K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 285 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $286K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 901 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.