The market asking whether the median home value in Miami will fall between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30 saw a sharp 26.5 percentage point rise in its YES contract price over 24 hours, climbing from 36.5% to 63.0% on July 12.
This price move was accompanied by whale activity that supported the shift: 29 unique whales contributed $7K in buy volume against $3K in sells, resulting in a net $4K flow into YES. This flow alignment with the price move indicates coordinated conviction among large traders.
Despite the Polymarket Breaking YES price at 63.0%, the Polydata on-chain mid-price for the same contract stands significantly lower at 31.0%, highlighting a notable divergence between the platform’s live market and on-chain data snapshots.
Polymarket recorded $7K in volume over the last 24 hours, close to the lifetime market volume of $10K, with 71 unique traders having participated overall. The surge in price combined with whale-backed buying suggests a rapid reappraisal of the likelihood that Miami’s median home value will fall within the specified range.
This synchronized rise in price and whale flow signals increased market confidence in this outcome, marking a significant shift in sentiment for the Miami real estate prediction market.
| Market | Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2760533 |
| 24h price change | +26.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 63.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 36.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 31.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $7K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 29 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 71 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.