Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 66 points to 80.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price shifts moved in tandem as bets surged on imminent Iranian military action against a Gulf State.
Jul 12
#%sprice-move
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 533 stories.
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Drop 18.9 Points Despite Whale Flow
Polymarket’s market on a July 15 launch saw YES contract price plunge from 19.4% to 0.50% while whale activity diverged, signaling skepticism among major bettors.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?” YES jumps 22 pp to 64% on Polymarket
Whale buying aligned with a sharp price rise, signaling renewed confidence in a US blockade announcement by year-end.
Jul 12
Breaking
US warship transit through Strait of Hormuz odds jump 25 pp to 54.5%
Polymarket whales increased exposure alongside a sharp price rally in the US naval deployment market.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on US Iran blockade jumps 31pp with whale buying support
The market’s rapid 31.0 percentage point rise to 63.0% was matched by $20K net whale inflows, signaling strong conviction in the move.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Shipping Attack Odds Surge 26.2 Points on Polymarket as Whale Bets Align
The market for Iran targeting shipping on July 11 rose from 4.6% to 30.8% amid whale activity matching the price move.
Jul 11
Breaking
Miami Home Value Market Jumps 26.5 Points as Whales Back YES with $4K Net Flow
Polymarket’s Miami home value contract surged from 36.5% to 63.0% YES price, driven by aligned whale buying of $7K volume.
Jul 11
Breaking
Berlin CDU election odds drop 15pp as whale bets diverge from price move
Whales bought $6K in YES contracts even as Polymarket’s price for CDU winning Berlin slid from 23.0% to 8.0%.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds drop 16.1pp despite whale buying
Polymarket prices for Iran military action on July 11 fell sharply while whale flow moved opposite, signaling trader skepticism.
Jul 11
Breaking
Claude Fable 5 Extension Odds Drop 15pp Despite Whale Buying
Whale activity diverged from price action as the market sharply lowered the chance of Anthropic extending Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access by July 12.
Jul 11