The Polymarket contract “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?” saw a rapid repricing with the YES vote climbing 22.0 percentage points over 24 hours, rising from 42.0% to 64.0% on the Polymarket Breaking feed.
This surge in probability was matched by whale activity, with 84 unique whales contributing to a net $20K inflow into YES positions during the same period. Whale buy volume reached $31K, outpacing $11K in sell volume, indicating strong buying pressure from large traders. The total 24-hour market volume stood at $30K, suggesting that whales accounted for a significant portion of recent trading.
The lifetime volume for this contract on Polymarket is $366K with 562 unique traders participating, highlighting sustained interest in the geopolitical event.
It is notable that the Polymarket Breaking YES price at 64.0% contrasts sharply with the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 25.5%, reflecting a divergence between the live market sentiment and the broader on-chain liquidity snapshot.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643406 |
| 24h price change | +22.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 64.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 42.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $20K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $31K / $11K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 84 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $30K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 562 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.