Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 18pp amid whale-price divergence
Whales bought $39K in YES contracts even as Polymarket’s YES price fell sharply to 36.5%.
Jul 11
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Iran non-attack odds on Hormuz ships plunge 24.4 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s ‘Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?’ YES contract dropped from 26.0% to 1.6% despite whale activity moving against the price trend.
Jul 11
Whales
Whales Net $668K Into YES on Switzerland World Cup Win at 1.7% Market Price
332 whales bought $1.48M against $741K sold as total volume hits $124.78M with nine days to close.
Jul 11
Breaking
Odds for 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, drop 20pp in 24h
Polymarket’s price for 'Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz' fell sharply despite whale buying diverging from the price move.
Jul 11
Whales
$218K Net Whale Bets on England Clash with 14.4% Market Price for 2026 World Cup
Whales have pushed $1.49M into YES bets over 24 hours despite the market pricing England’s win at 14.4%.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Kash Patel out by December 31?” YES odds jump 20pp to 56.5% with $16K whale support
Whales bought $29K in YES contracts, aligning with a 20-point jump in odds over 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 11
Whales
$450K Sell Trade on Norway to Advance Against Market Odds at 34.9%
A single wallet sold $450K on Norway advancing despite market-implied probability under 35%, diverging from whale buying trends.
Jul 11
Breaking
Next Grok Model’s 1460+ Score Odds Drop 19pp as Whale Flow Diverges
YES price on xAI Grok model debut plunges from 20.1% to 1.1% despite whale inactivity, signaling market skepticism.
Jul 11
Whales
Whale Buys $459K on England to Win Despite 51.6% Market Odds
A single wallet placed $1.53M in seven large trades backing England in the Norway vs. England market, aligning with strong whale buying trends.
Jul 11
Breaking
Linda Nosková’s 2026 Wimbledon Winner Odds Jump 54.8pp to 100% on Polymarket
Whale buying of $69K into YES contracts aligned with a full-price surge despite on-chain mid at 20%.
Jul 11