Whales

$450K Sell Trade on Norway to Advance Against Market Odds at 34.9%

A single wallet sold $450K on Norway advancing despite market-implied probability under 35%, diverging from whale buying trends.

A single wallet identified as 0x09b4…7320 executed a $450K sell trade on the “Norway vs. England: Team to Advance” market, where the market-implied probability for Norway advancing stood at 34.9% at the time. This trade contrasts with the broader whale activity in the market, which saw $4.46M in buying versus $1.77M in selling over the last 24 hours across 1,112 unique whales, indicating a predominantly bullish stance on this market.

The wallet’s activity today includes a total of nine large trades amounting to $2.33M, representing a significant portion of the $8.54M total market volume. Alongside this sell, the same wallet also bought $459K and $381K on the “Will England win on 2026-07-11?” market, as well as $298K on the same “Norway vs. England: Team to Advance” market.

With a lifetime volume of $20.25M over 5,719 trades, this wallet is an experienced participant in prediction markets. The size and direction of this $450K sell trade, set against both the market’s probability and the broader whale buying trend, highlights a notable divergence in positioning within the “Norway vs. England – More Markets” event.

This trade signals a substantial capital move that does not align with prevailing whale buying behavior and the market pricing, underscoring the presence of varied perspectives among large traders in this event.

Direction SELL
Market Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Event Norway vs. England – More Markets
Wallet 0x09b428f7c2b469786286214aa5c90dd9015f7320
Amount $450K

Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-11T19:14:08Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.

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