Breaking
“Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding?” YES price jumps 25.1pp to 87.6%
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour rise with $1K net buying into YES on Polymarket’s $131K volume market.
Jul 12
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 46.5 points to 74% as whales back move
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?” market sees aligned whale flow and price jump, reflecting sharp repricing.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds fall 18.2 points despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from price as Polymarket’s “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?” contract dropped sharply
Jul 12
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” YES price jumps 53.9pp to 92.3% on Polymarket
Whales supported the surge with $12K net buying, reinforcing a sharp shift in market odds over 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
McConnell Senate Exit Odds Drop 17pp Despite $15K Whale Bet on YES
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 17.0 pp decline in YES price, signaling mixed conviction in McConnell stepping down early.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket sees 24.5pp drop in McConnell Senate resignation odds amid whale-price divergence
Despite whales netting $14K into YES, Polymarket’s price for McConnell stepping down fell sharply from 49.5% to 25.0% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?” YES price jumps 21.5 pp to 77.0%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 21.5 pp rise in the probability of Russian capture within 24 hours, pushing the market price to 77.0%.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?” YES price jumps 25.5 pp to 81.0%
Odds on Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by August 31 rose sharply alongside aligned whale activity, signaling increased market conviction.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action market jumps 71pp to 80.5% as whales back the surge
Polymarket’s contract on Iran launching military action against a Gulf State on July 12 saw its YES price rise sharply alongside whale buying, signaling increased market conviction.
Jul 12
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 YES price jumps 16pp to 95.5% with whale buying
Whale activity and a sharp price rise pushed Polymarket odds for the July 31 launch to near certainty, despite a lower on-chain mid-price.
Jul 12