The Polymarket contract “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” saw its YES price soar by 53.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 38.4% to 92.3%. This dramatic repricing reflects a swift change in market sentiment within a single day.
Whale activity aligned with this price move, as 88 unique whales contributed a net inflow of $12K into YES contracts. Their total buy volume reached $19K, against $7K in sells, indicating a clear preference for the YES outcome among large traders. The overall 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market stood at $23K, while lifetime volume recorded by Polydata is $31K, with 197 unique traders participating to date.
The convergence of strong whale buying and the sharp price increase suggests coordinated conviction behind the market’s reassessment of the likelihood that Iran successfully targeted shipping on July 12. The scale of the shift and the whale support reinforce the market’s rapidly changing expectations, signaling heightened confidence in this event’s occurrence as of July 13.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +53.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 92.3% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 38.4% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $12K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $19K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 88 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $23K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 197 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.