Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? YES price jumps 80 pp to 89.5%
Whale trading aligned with a sharp rise in odds, pushing the market from 9.5% to 89.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” YES price jumps 87.8 pp to 91.2% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp repricing with $12K net buys amid $23K total 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in the outcome.
Jul 12
Whales
Whales add $1.97M to Switzerland World Cup 2026 YES at 0.05% market price
Large traders increased exposure to Switzerland’s 2026 World Cup win despite near-zero market odds, signaling a rare divergence.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action market jumps 77.5 points to 87% as whale flow backs surge
Polymarket’s contract on Iran launching military action against a Gulf State on July 12 saw a sharp repricing, with large traders confirming the move.
Jul 12
Whales
Whale Bets $440K Against 0.05% Odds on Switzerland to Win 2026 World Cup
A single wallet placed $873K across two large bets backing Switzerland in a low-probability World Cup winner market, joining broader whale buying.
Jul 12
Whales
0x2cff…59db places $338K bet on UFC 329 outcome priced at 70.5%
This wallet’s $635K total bets today align with strong whale buying amid $18.33M market volume on UFC 329.
Jul 12
Breaking
US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 17.5pp despite $48K whale buying
Whale purchases of $48K in ‘YES’ contracts contrast with a sharp 17.5 percentage point decline in Polymarket price.
Jul 12
Breaking
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? YES jumps 23.3 pp to 88.6%
Whale buying aligned with a sharp rise in YES price, pushing odds from 65.3% to 88.6% in 24 hours
Jul 12
Breaking
US blockade on Iran odds jump 20pp to 47% as whales back the move
Whales aligned with a sharp 20 percentage point rise in the chance of a US blockade on Iran by August 31, driving a surge in Polymarket activity.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Surge 88 Points to 94.5% on Polymarket
Whale trading volume aligned with sharp repricing, pushing probability from 6.5% to near certainty in 24 hours.
Jul 12