The probability that Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by August 31 rose sharply by 21.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 55.5% to 77.0% on Polymarket. This significant price increase reflects a rapid shift in market expectations regarding the event.
The surge in the YES contract price was accompanied by whale activity that moved in tandem with the market, indicating that large investors supported the rising odds rather than opposing the trend. Polymarket recorded $16K in trading volume on this question during the same period, underscoring active engagement from traders.
This alignment between whale flow and price movement suggests a consensus among influential market participants that the likelihood of Russian forces capturing Kostyantynivka by the end of August has increased substantially. The combined price and flow data signal a marked reassessment of the situation on the ground by the prediction market community, reflecting new information or sentiment shifts that have strengthened confidence in this outcome.
| Market | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853652 |
| 24h price change | +21.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 77.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 55.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $16K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.