Breaking
YES price drops 18.9pp to 18.6% on Farage 70–80% vote share market amid whale divergence
Whales bought $3K into YES while Polymarket price fell sharply, signaling conflicting signals on Nigel Farage’s by-election performance.
Jul 13
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Odds for 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026 jump 19.5pp to 36.5%
Whale trading activity tracked the sharp rise in market odds, signaling growing confidence in a high traffic day through the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” YES price drops 23pp despite $144K whale buying
Whale buying of $144K in YES contracts contrasts sharply with a 23.0 percentage point decline in the market’s odds over 24 hours.
Jul 13
Whales
Whale Bets $299K Against Consensus on Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalizing by July 15
A $299K bet from experienced trader @Dafu0715 backs a longshot outcome priced at 12.5%, joining a $1.06M whale buying wave on the market.
Jul 13
Breaking
Ethereum $1,700 July Dip Odds Drop 19pp Amid Whale Flow Divergence
Ethereum's dip to $1,700 in July saw YES contracts fall from 66.0% to 47.0% while whale activity diverged, signaling mixed market sentiment.
Jul 13
Breaking
Mitch McConnell resignation odds drop 18.5 pp as whale flow diverges
Whales bought $25K into YES while market odds for McConnell stepping down fell from 49.5% to 31.0% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds jump 25.9 pp to 58.9% with whale buying
Whales pushed $4K into YES contracts as market odds on Iran targeting shipping on July 13 rose sharply.
Jul 12
Breaking
Mitch McConnell Senate exit odds drop 22.5 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s prediction on McConnell stepping down fell sharply despite $24K whale bets into YES, signaling mixed sentiment.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds surge 32.2 pp to 58.6% with whale buying support
Whales contributed $4K net into YES as Polymarket traders sharply repriced the likelihood of Iran targeting shipping on July 13.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds jump 38.3 pp to 56.8% with whale buying aligned
Whales contributed $4K net inflow into YES as market sharply repriced likelihood of Iran targeting shipping on July 13.
Jul 12