The market for “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?” surged 71.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours, climbing from an estimated 9.5% to 80.5% as of the latest Polymarket Breaking feed snapshot on July 13, 2026. This dramatic repricing reflects a significant shift in market expectations about the likelihood of this event occurring on the specified date.
Supporting this price move, whale activity aligned with the rally, indicating that large traders contributed net inflows into the YES contracts rather than opposing the price change. The 24-hour trading volume on this market totaled $59K, underscoring robust participation during this revaluation phase.
The concurrence of whale buying and a steep rise in the YES price suggests that influential market participants are backing the higher probability of Iran taking military action against a Gulf State on July 12. This joint price and flow movement signals a growing consensus or emerging information driving the market’s reassessment of risk for this event.
| Market | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2851417 |
| 24h price change | +71.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 80.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 9.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $59K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.