The probability that 40 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, surged 19.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, jumping from 17.0% to 36.5% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing reflects a significant market reassessment of maritime traffic risks or conditions in the strategic waterway.
Supporting this price move, whale trading activity aligned with the market’s direction, indicating that large traders backed the increased odds. The $5K in 24-hour volume, while modest, accompanied a clear consensus between price action and whale flow, reinforcing the strength of the recent shift in sentiment.
The contract “Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” now reflects a notably higher likelihood of substantial vessel traffic through the narrow and geopolitically sensitive channel. The combined price and whale flow data suggest that participants see a growing chance of peak transit days occurring before the July 2026 deadline.
This repricing and whale confirmation together highlight a market increasingly focused on the dynamics impacting maritime movement in one of the world’s most critical shipping corridors.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +19.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 36.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 17.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.