The probability that Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13 rose sharply by 38.3 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 18.5% to 56.8% on Polymarket. This significant repricing reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment toward the event occurring.
Whale activity tracked alongside this price movement, with a net $4K inflow into YES contracts. Over the same period, whales bought $10K worth of YES shares and sold $5K, indicating sustained buying interest from a concentrated group of 42 unique whales. Polymarket’s overall 24-hour volume stood at $8K, with the market’s lifetime volume totaling $16K and 109 unique traders participating since inception.
The alignment of whale flow with the price increase suggests that larger traders reinforced the market’s reassessment of the event’s probability rather than opposing it. The combined surge in odds and whale buying points to a consolidated market view that the likelihood of an Iranian shipping attack on July 13 has risen materially over the past day.
This repricing and whale engagement provide a clear signal of shifting expectations within this prediction market, highlighting heightened concern or new information driving traders’ conviction on this geopolitical event.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835636 |
| 24h price change | +38.3 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 56.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 18.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 42 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 109 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.