Breaking
Odds Mitch McConnell will step down fall 19pp as whale flow bucks price drop
Whales bought $28K in YES contracts even as market probability dropped from 50.0% to 31.0% in 24 hours.
Jul 13
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Mitch McConnell Senate vote odds double to 30% on Polymarket with whale support
A 15.5 percentage-point jump in YES price aligns with whale buying, signaling stronger market conviction.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? YES price climbs 37.5pp to 82%
Whale activity and price movement aligned as market sharply reprices likelihood of conflict in Gulf.
Jul 13
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka odds jump 21pp to 45.5% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp 21-point increase in the YES price with $31K net inflow, driving the market's fastest 24-hour reprice.
Jul 13
Whales
Whales Push $305K into England Win at 21.6% Despite Market Skepticism
Large traders’ $305K net buy contrasts with the market’s 21.6% implied probability for England’s 2026 World Cup victory.
Jul 13
Breaking
‘Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?’ odds drop 15.5 pp despite $129K whale inflow
Polymarket’s YES price for a US blockade on Iran fell sharply from 45.5% to 30.0% in 24 hours, while whales bought $129K worth of contracts, signaling a divergence between price action and whale behavior.
Jul 13
Whales
Whales Buy $256K on France to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 39.0% Market Odds
Whale investors have pushed $256K into the YES side, diverging from the market price that values France’s win at 39.0%.
Jul 13
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on US Iran blockade falls 17pp despite $131K whale buying
Whale activity diverged from the sharp drop in odds on US blockade announcement by July 31, signaling mixed sentiment.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Shipping Target Market YES Price Surges 34pp to 45.6% with Whale Support
Whales added $5K net into YES as Polymarket’s odds for Iran targeting shipping on July 13 rose sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
‘No next UK Culture Secretary in 2026?’ YES price jumps 15.0 pp to 26.5% on whale support
Whales contributed a net $3K buying YES contracts as the market’s probability more than doubled in 24 hours.
Jul 13