The market on whether Nigel Farage will win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton by-election showed a sharp reversal in the past 24 hours as the YES contract price dropped 18.9 percentage points, from 37.5% to 18.6%, according to Polymarket Breaking data. This significant decline in implied probability contrasts with the whale activity over the same period, which saw a net $3K inflow into YES contracts. Whales executed $5K in buy volume against $2K in sell volume across 27 unique wallets, indicating buying interest despite the falling price.
The divergence between whale flow and market price is notable. While the on-chain Polydata mid-price for YES stands at 50.0%, Polymarket’s Breaking feed shows the price significantly lower at 18.6%, underscoring a split between on-chain liquidity and Polymarket’s traded price. Total 24-hour volume on Polymarket was $5K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $14K with 99 unique traders participating.
This tension between whale buying and market price suggests conflicting interpretations or timing differences among large traders and the broader market. The sharp price drop could reflect growing skepticism on Farage achieving such a dominant vote share, while whale buying may signal some continued conviction or a bet on a later price rebound. Together, these data points reveal a complex and unsettled market sentiment toward this by-election outcome.
| Market | Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2846104 |
| 24h price change | +18.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 18.6% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 37.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 50.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $5K / $2K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 27 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 99 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.