Breaking
Republican Senate Incumbents Market Jumps 22.6 pp to 94.7% on Polymarket
Whales contributed $3K net buying as the contract’s odds rose sharply, with on-chain and price moves aligned.
Jul 11
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Trump housing bill contract drops 63.2 pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket’s “Trump signs housing bill by end of July?” market plunged from 65.0% to 1.8% despite $9K whale buying in the last 24 hours.
Jul 11
Breaking
Republican Senate incumbents’ odds jump 29.2 pp to 94.7% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp rise in probability for exactly two incumbent losses in 2026 nominating elections.
Jul 11
Breaking
YES price plunges 68.2pp to 2.4% on Grok model debut score market amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s contract on xAI’s Grok model scoring at least 1460 by end-2026 sharply reprices as whale activity contradicts price movement.
Jul 11
Whales
$346K Buy on Kim Kardashian 2028 US Presidency Defies 0.65% Market Odds
A single wallet placed $346K on Kim Kardashian winning the 2028 US Presidential Election, sharply diverging from the market's longshot pricing.
Jul 11
Whales
$283K Whale Bet on Norway Defies 5.9% Market Odds in 2026 World Cup Market
Experienced trader @neutralwave23 stakes $283K on Norway to win despite low market-implied probability, joining broader whale buying.
Jul 11
Breaking
Russia Entry into Shevchenko Market Surges 20.6pp to 98.7% on Polymarket
Whale activity of $20K aligns with sharp price rise, signaling strong market conviction on the event.
Jul 11
Breaking
Next Grok Model Debut Odds Collapse 74.2pp to 3.2% on Polymarket
Whale activity diverged sharply from the 74.2pp plunge in YES price, signaling conflicting views on xAI’s model performance.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES price falls 17.5 pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s market on Credible public sale commitment saw YES odds drop from 38.0% to 20.5%, while whale flow moved against the price trend.
Jul 11
Breaking
Trump housing bill market YES price plunges 53.1pp despite $9K whale buying
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 53.1 percentage point drop in the probability of Trump signing the housing bill by end of July.
Jul 11