Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 25.7 points to 39.6% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price gains aligned as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of Iran striking a Gulf State on July 9.
Jul 11
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 41.5pp to 54.6% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp jump in probability for Iran's July 9 Gulf military action market, signaling growing conviction.
Jul 11
Breaking
Russia entry into Shevchenko market jumps 15.2 pp to 97.7% as whales add $21K
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour price rise, pushing the market closer to certainty despite on-chain price discrepancy.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Trump signs housing bill by end of July?” YES price falls 47.9 pp despite $9K whale inflow
Whales bought $10K of YES contracts even as the market price plunged from 50.0% to 2.1%, signaling a divergence between price and whale activity.
Jul 11
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension odds drop 18.5 pp despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from price as YES contracts fell from 34.0% to 15.5% on Polymarket in 24 hours.
Jul 11
Breaking
BBL Esports YES contract jumps 60.2 pp to 100% despite whale selling
Whale activity diverged sharply from a full market repricing on BBL Esports’ chances at EWC 2026.
Jul 11
Breaking
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again? YES price drops 21.5 pp in 24h
Whale activity diverges from price move as Polymarket cuts extension odds sharply
Jul 11
Breaking
Claude Fable 5 extension odds drop 15pp to 19% despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from price movement as Polymarket lowered chances of Anthropic extending paid-plan access.
Jul 11
Breaking
Polymarket’s “Trump signs housing bill by end of July?” YES price plunges 54.7pp to 1.8% amid whale buy divergence
Whale buying of $9K into YES contrasts sharply with the 54.7 percentage point collapse in contract price, signaling conflicting signals on the market’s outlook.
Jul 11
Breaking
Republican Senate incumbents’ defeat odds jump 17pp to 94.7% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligns with sharp price rise in market on 2026 nominating election outcomes.
Jul 11