The market for whether the next Grok model released by xAI will debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, saw a dramatic collapse in its YES price, dropping 74.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours from 77.5% to just 3.2%.
This steep decline in optimism came despite whale trading flow moving against the price trend, indicating a divergence between large traders and the general market sentiment. While the YES contract price plummeted, whales did not increase their exposure to YES; instead, their net flow diverged from the sharp repricing.
The $11K traded on Polymarket in the last 24 hours reflects moderate activity around this contract amid the volatility. The price collapse suggests that the broader market has significantly lowered expectations for the next Grok model’s debut score, even as whales appear to be resisting the selloff.
This divergence between price and whale flow signals uncertainty or disagreement among informed traders about the model’s prospects. The sharp 74.2pp drop in YES price combined with opposing whale behavior points to a complex market dynamic rather than a straightforward consensus shift.
Overall, the contrasting signals from price action and whale flow highlight unsettled views on xAI’s upcoming Grok model performance as the December 2026 deadline approaches.
| Market | Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839994 |
| 24h price change | +74.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 3.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 77.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.