The probability that Trump will sign the housing bill by the end of July dropped sharply by 53.1 percentage points in the last 24 hours, falling from 55.0% to 1.8% on Polymarket Breaking.
Despite this massive decline in the YES price, whale activity ran counter to the market’s direction. Seventeen unique whales bought $10K worth of YES contracts while selling only $916, resulting in a net whale inflow of $9K into the YES side. This divergence highlights a disconnect between large traders and the broader market sentiment reflected in the price.
Total 24-hour volume on this market reached $37K, surpassing the market’s lifetime volume of $11K, indicating heightened trading interest amid the price swing. A total of 38 unique traders have participated since inception.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 1.8% contrasts sharply with the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 56.5%, underscoring a discrepancy between the breaking feed and on-chain data.
This combination of a steep price collapse alongside significant whale buying suggests that while the broader market has drastically lowered the probability of Trump signing the bill by the deadline, large traders are positioning differently.
| Market | Trump signs housing bill by end of July? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2674205 |
| 24h price change | +53.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 55.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 56.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $9K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $916 |
| Unique whales (24h) | 17 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $37K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 38 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.