The Polymarket contract “Trump signs housing bill by end of July?” saw a dramatic 63.2 percentage point drop in its YES price over 24 hours, falling from an estimated 65.0% to just 1.8% as of July 11. This sharp repricing contrasts starkly with whale activity, which moved in the opposite direction. Whales net bought $9K into YES positions, with $10K in buy volume against only $916 in sells, across 17 unique whales.
Despite the strong whale demand, the price on Polymarket’s Breaking feed reflects a collapse in confidence that the bill will be signed by the deadline. The divergence between whale flow and price is notable, indicating different sentiments between large traders and the broader market or automated pricing algorithms. The Polydata YES price on-chain mid stands at 56.5%, significantly higher than the 1.8% reported by Polymarket Breaking, underscoring discrepancies in price feeds.
Market volume for the past 24 hours reached $37K, with lifetime volume at $11K and a total of 40 unique traders participating. The discordant signals—large whale buying amid a steep price drop—suggest complex positioning or possible liquidity dynamics at play. The divergence between whale flow and price highlights the volatility and uncertainty surrounding the timing of this legislative event on Polymarket.
| Market | Trump signs housing bill by end of July? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2674205 |
| 24h price change | +63.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 65.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 56.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $9K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $916 |
| Unique whales (24h) | 17 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $37K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 40 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.