The Polymarket contract asking whether the next Grok model released by xAI will debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, saw its YES price collapse 68.2 percentage points in the past 24 hours, falling from 70.5% to 2.4% as of July 11.
This dramatic repricing signals a swift shift in market expectations that the model will reach the specified score threshold. However, whale trading activity diverged from this price movement, with large traders not aligning their flow with the sharp decline in YES contracts.
Polymarket recorded $11K in volume on this market over the same period, indicating moderate liquidity accompanying the price drop. The discrepancy between price action and whale flow adds a layer of nuance to the market’s interpretation of xAI’s Grok model performance prospects.
This combined picture of a steep price fall alongside opposing whale trading activity implies that market consensus is unsettled.
| Market | Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839994 |
| 24h price change | +68.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 2.4% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 70.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.