Polymarket’s YES contract on the question “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?” saw a dramatic 37.2 percentage point decline over the past 24 hours, falling from 37.7% to 0.45% as of July 12. This sharp repricing highlights a sudden shift in market sentiment against the launch happening by that date.
Interestingly, whale activity diverged from the price movement: large traders did not increase their exposure to YES contracts during this period, indicating a lack of confidence from significant market participants in the contract’s rebound. Total 24-hour volume on the market was $8K, reflecting moderate trading interest accompanying the price drop.
This divergence between whale flow and the steep decline in YES price suggests that the broader market is pricing in a low probability of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launching by mid-July, while whales hold back from aggressively betting on a turnaround. The combination of a collapsing price and stagnant whale buying points to sustained skepticism about the event’s timing as the deadline approaches.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2851471 |
| 24h price change | +37.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.45% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 37.7% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.