The probability that SpaceX’s Starship Flight Test 13 will launch by July 15 dropped sharply by 15.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, moving from 15.5% down to just 0.45%. This steep repricing occurred amid $8K in 24-hour trading volume, reflecting active market interest.
Notably, whale activity diverged from the price move: large traders net sold YES contracts rather than buying into the declining odds. This discrepancy between price direction and whale flow signals a complex market reaction, where retail or smaller traders pushed prices lower while whales reduced exposure to the YES side.
The divergence suggests that despite the market’s sharp drop in belief that the launch will occur by July 15, whales are not reinforcing this view with purchases, instead stepping back from YES positions.
Overall, the combination of a dramatic 15pp decline in probability and opposing whale flow points to a market in flux, with shifting expectations and cautious positioning ahead of the event’s deadline.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2851471 |
| 24h price change | +15.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.45% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 15.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.