Breaking
US blockade on Iran by July 31? YES price jumps 62.5 points to 100% on Polymarket
Whales added $351K net to YES contracts as price surged from 37.5% to full certainty, with flow and tape aligned despite on-chain mid at 22.5%.
Jul 13
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 64 pp to 82% on Polymarket
Whale activity and market prices rose in tandem, driving a sharp revaluation of the diplomatic meeting likelihood.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” YES jumps 66.3 points to 99.8%
Whales added $347K net into YES alongside a surge in contract price on Polymarket, signaling a sharp shift in market conviction.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran withdrawal from MOU talks by July 17? YES price jumps 19.7 pp to 27.2%
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 24-hour repricing, lifting the market’s probability on Iran pulling out of negotiations.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” YES price jumps 33.4 pp to 56.0% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with the sharp rise in odds, signaling increased conviction behind the event's likelihood.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Surge 34.4 Points to 62.5% on Polymarket
Sharp price rise on Iran's Gulf State military action question aligns with whale trading in $60K volume.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 47 points to 66% on Polymarket
Whale activity matched the surge in YES price, lifting market confidence in a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran MOU Withdrawal Odds Jump 15.5pp to 27% as Whale Buys Support Rally
Whales added $14K net to YES as Polymarket’s price for Iran withdrawal by July 24 climbs sharply, signaling growing conviction.
Jul 13
Breaking
US Iran blockade market surges 68.3 points as whales push YES to 99.9%
Polymarket’s contract on a US blockade of Iran by July 31 jumps sharply with strong whale buying supporting the rally.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? YES price jumps 39.5 pp to 72.5%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp odds increase, pushing the market toward a military action outcome.
Jul 13